Project Mayhem #1: Bitcoin
The system's still red. I'm buying convexity anyway.. defined risk, scaled in, sized so it can go to zero without touching my survival.
First rule of this newsletter: we don’t predict. We don’t negotiate with the tape. We let the math move us.
So let me be straight about what this is.. this is me breaking that rule.. on purpose.
The 8th Rule is still overwhelmingly bearish.
But underneath the bearish trend; there are several long-term metrics that are pointing to signs of full capitulation.
Bitcoin’s ~53% off the October high. Long-term holders are accumulating at the most aggressive clip since 2012 while short-term holders puke the lows. Multiple on-chain & liquidity models have signaled extreme value. Worst case from here is ~10-15% lower or a 3–6 month window chop.. but 9–15 months out, I think this is a price we look back on.
And for that reason, I’m taking a discretionary options trade on IBIT 0.00%↑ here. Any of these that I do going forward will be part of the “Project Mayhem” series here on Substack. I will share my analysis, reasoning, the trade itself and the rest is up to you.
Let’s start with the charts first.. then get into the trade details. I’m posting these without context, use your own judgement.
With the charts out of the way.. let’s get into the trade details.
⚠️ READ THIS TWICE. Do not copy this trade if you are not 100% comfortable losing every dollar in the position. This is not a system signal. It’s a discretionary, lottery-flavored convexity bet.
I’m risking $5,000 (roughly 3% of my $170,000 book) because $5,000 is an amount I can light on fire and still sleep.
If 3% of your book hurts, this trade is not for you. Walk away.
